ABSTRACT
The policy measures of the government of Nigeria to restrain the spread of COVID-19, particularly in the initial three months (April - June 2020) led to significant disruptions to household livelihoods and food security. We investigate the effects of COVID-19 on food security and dietary diversity of households; focusing on the pathways through which income loss, endowments of wealth, social capital, and safety net programs moderate the severity of households' food security and dietary diversity. Primary data obtained from a telephone survey of 1,031 Nigerian households were analyzed using ordered logit and negative binomial models. Our results show that income losses due to the COVID-19 restrictive measures had pushed households into a more severe food insecurity and less diverse nutritional outcomes. Regarding wealth effects, livestock ownership significantly cushioned households from falling into a more severe food insecurity amid the pandemic. We found that because of the pandemic's indiscriminate effect across communities, the potential of social capital as an informal support mechanism might have been eroded to enable households to cope with shocks. Furthermore, safety net programs by the government and NGOs did not provide significant protection to households from falling into severe food insecurity and malnutrition amid the pandemic. We suggest three policy propositions - prioritize investment in local job creation to curb income loss; build the wealth base of households (e.g., land tenure security or livestock) to enhance resilience to shocks; and target safety nets and other social support programs spatially, temporally, and across social groups to enhance the effectiveness of such programs amid shocks.
ABSTRACT
Most countries exempted agri-food systems from “lockdown” policies introduced in early 2020 to curb the COVID-19 outbreak. Yet these policies had economywide implications, implying that even exempted sectors were indirectly affected by disruptions to supply chains and falling consumer demand. After its first confirmed case, Nigeria's federal and state governments implemented lockdowns across most cities and states. This included closing all borders and many non-essential businesses. Nigeria also faced declining remittances and export demand caused by the global recission. We estimate the economywide impacts of these lockdown policies and global shocks using a multiplier model of Nigeria calibrated to a 2018 social accounting matrix. We simulate Nigeria's 8-week lockdown (March–June), as well as “recovery” scenarios until the end of 2020. Simulations draw on information from official data, policy announcements, and interviews with government agencies and private sector and industry groups. Findings indicate that total GDP fell 23% during the lockdown. Agri-food system GDP fell 11%, primarily due to restrictions on food services. Household incomes also fell by a quarter, leading a 9% points increase in the national poverty rate. Given the scale of these economic losses, our recovery scenarios indicate that, even with a rapid easing of restrictions and global recovery, Nigeria is unlikely to escape a deep economic recession. We conclude that, while food systems were exempt, they were not immune to the effects of COVID-19. Protecting food supplies should be a priority alongside government efforts to address the health consequences of the pandemic.